The Emperor Has No Clothes
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چکیده
Like many in academia, Kocherlakota associates modern macroeconomics with a particular school of thought that takes something called the “Lucas critique” as its guiding principle. The Lucas critique refers to an argument put forth by the Nobel Prize-winning macroeconomist Robert Lucas about how the changing expectations of economic agents will confound forecasting and policy analysis based on macroeconomic data. Its main implication is that an economic model with “deep structural parameters” related to preferences and technology for households and firms should provide more reliable forecasts, especially when predicting the effects of policy, than a model based more on the apparent historical correlations between macroeconomic variables. This is sometimes referred to as the “microfoundations” approach to macroeconomics because it presumes that a microeconomic structure — in particular, the metaphor of optimizing economic agents— is more robust to changes in the policy environment than macroeconomic correlations.
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